Progression to higher education is not a single, linear pathway, but a set of different routes shaped by learners’ backgrounds, experiences, and choices at key points in their education journey.
Understanding how these routes operate in practice requires a closer look at the data. As such, we analysed UCAS data to better understand the progression pathways of our learners. By focusing on those taking vocational and technical qualifications (VTQs) – excluding T Levels – we can explore both applicants and applications, building a clearer picture of who is progressing, where from, and into which subject areas.
This perspective helps us to build a more complete picture of how learners move through education beyond 16 – and provides an opportunity to explore what this data tells us about their trajectories, motivations, and aspirations.
A predominantly young applicant group
NCFE learners progressing to higher education (HE) are more likely to be younger than the national average. Over 90% of NCFE applicants are aged 18–19, compared with around 70% across all UCAS applicants. Nationally, there is a larger proportion of mature applicants aged 21 and over (24%).
This suggests that VTQs are commonly used as a direct progression route from post-16 education into HE for those progressing on to higher education. At a point where some learners may be weighing up whether to continue in education, these pathways appear to provide a clear and structured next step.
Regional variation in where learners progress from
There are also notable differences in the regional distribution of applicants. The highest proportion of NCFE applicants comes from the North West (20%), whereas nationally, the highest proportion of UCAS applicants comes from London.
This shift away from a London-centric pattern may indicate the importance of VTQs within regional education and skills systems, particularly in areas where participation in HE has traditionally varied.
Indicators of disadvantage among applicants
Two of the most significant findings relate to socioeconomic background, using measures that indicate levels of deprivation and disadvantage.
More than a quarter (27%) of NCFE learners accepted into higher education through UCAS had received free school meals, compared to 12% nationally. In addition, 59% of applicants live in the two most deprived quintiles of the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD1 and IMD2) — areas ranked within the lowest 40% in England based on factors such as income, employment, education and access to services.
These figures suggest that NCFE VTQ pathways are being accessed by a higher proportion of learners from disadvantaged backgrounds. In this context, progression to higher education may represent an important continuation of education for groups who are at greater risk of disengaging at key transition points, including those who might otherwise be more likely to fall out of education, employment or training.
Subject choices reflect vocational starting points
Turning to the number of individual applications, subject trends reflect the vocational nature of learners’ prior study.
Half of all NCFE applicants to UCAS have studied health and social care. This is mirrored in application patterns, with nursing and midwifery accounting for 25% of all applications – by far the largest single subject area.
Other subject areas include:
- sport and exercise science (12%)
- education and teaching (11%)
- health and social care (11%)
- allied health (9%).
Rather than a broad spread of unrelated choices, applications tend to cluster around a relatively small number of subject areas linked to established career pathways.
Strong alignment between study and progression
There is also a clear relationship between a learners’ prior subject area and their HE applications:
- 90% of nursing and midwifery applications come from health and social care learners
- 92% of sport and exercise science applications come from sport, leisure and recreation learners
- 70% of education and teaching applications come from child development and wellbeing learners
- 75% of allied health applications come from health and social care learners.
This alignment suggests that learners are making progression decisions that build directly on their existing knowledge and skills. It also points to a degree of clarity in progression routes, with vocational study supporting relatively defined next steps.
What the data suggests about progression patterns
Taken together, these findings highlight a progression model that is relatively structured and closely aligned to prior learning.
Rather than following broad or exploratory pathways, learners tend to move into higher education through routes that build directly on their vocational study, with clear links between subject choice and career direction. The concentration of applications in areas such as health, education, and sport also reflects sectors with established progression routes and strong workforce demand.
Seen in this context, progression through VTQs appears less about navigating multiple possible routes, and more about following a defined pathway into further study and employment. For many learners, this may provide a clearer sense of direction and continuity at a key transition point.
At a system level, this may indicate that VTQs are helping to sustain participation in education beyond Level 3, particularly for learners whose progression routes might otherwise be less certain.
Implications for higher education
For higher education providers, these patterns offer useful context.
A more detailed understanding of VTQ learners – including their backgrounds, subject preferences and progression behaviours – can support more tailored approaches to recruitment, admissions and student support.
In particular, the concentration of applications in areas such as health, education, and sport aligns with sectors where there is ongoing workforce demand, as well as established vocational-to-professional pathways.
Continuing the conversation
This data provides a snapshot of how VTQ learners are progressing to HE, and highlights areas for further exploration – particularly around how different pathways support sustained engagement in education and onward progression into employment.
As the sector continues to focus on participation, access and skills, understanding how these routes function in practice will remain an important part of the picture.
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